Defending Premiers Richmond kicked off their title defence in style overnight defeating Carlton by 26 points. There are some intriguing matches still ahead and I have opted for a multi which requires St. Kilda to defeat Brisbane, Port Adelaide to beat Fremantle, GWS to defeat the Western Bulldogs and Sydney to be too good for West Coast. The multi price is $2.99.
From a value perspective I think Hawthorn at $1.80 against Collingwood look a super chance and Geelong at $2 look a strong hope of beating Melbourne.
Ben Brown has been a personal cash cow for me in the last season and a half with his strike rate as First Goal Scorer being second to none. I will be backing him at $7.50 to kick the first goal in the North Melbourne v Gold Coast clash – I can recommend you stick with him through the season for a nice result. In tonight’s Adelaide v Essendon encounter I am having something on Joe Daniher to kick the first goal at $7.
Melbourne United and the Adelaide 36ers are locked at 1-1 in the NBL Grand Final Playoff series and tonight the home court advantage is in favour of Melbourne. Quite simply this season both teams have cashed in when they have had the advantage of their home floor and it is most likely that the trend will continue here. In game 1 Melbourne won at home by 11 points, in game 2 Adelaide won at home by 15 points. I will be banking Melbourne in multis at $1.40 and I am happy to be on them at the line to win by 6 points or more at $1.85 and for a bigger price I will have something on them to win by 11 points or more at $2.60.
I’ll take a multi with Sydney FC to defeat Central Coast and the Melbourne Victory to beat the Perth Glory. The multi price is $2.90.
In NRL round 3 action I will take a multi with Saint George to beat the Gold Coast and Sydney to cover the line and beat Newcastle by 9 points or more. The multi is paying $2.86.
The Third Test got underway overnight in South Africa and Australia did a tremendous job in the final session ripping through the South African middle order to leave the hosts 8/266. Australia should wrap up proceedings early in day two and then it will be essential that they pile on a big first innings total. Steve Smith has been relatively quiet by his standards in the first two tests but he isn’t the number 1 ranked batsman in world cricket for no reason. I expect the Aussie Skipper to come out determined to make his mark on this series and I am happy to be on him to be the leading runscorer for Australia at $3.15. Likewise Kagiso Rabada will be fired up after having his 2 match suspension overturned and I think the $3.50 on offer about him to be the leading wicket taker for South Africa in the first innings is generous.
It is Golden Slipper Day at Rosehill on Saturday and what a program it promises to be. Five cracking Group 1 events including the great mare Winx looking to make it 24 straight victories in the George Ryder Stakes.
My best bets of the weekend are as follows :
Mornington Saturday Race 6 Number 3 I’m Wesley (TABtouch Fixed Odds Price $4.20) Gun Tasmanian who ran a brave second behind Secret Agenda in the Bob Hoysted at Flemington last start. Last preparation won six straight races and has come back in tip top order. Secret Agenda is the favourite for the Group 1 William Reid Stakes at Moonee Valley tonight and I’m Wesley went within a narrow margin of knocking it off last start – to my eye that makes it very hard to beat in this particular Listed event.
- Rosehill Saturday Race 2 Number 7 Nettoyer (TABtouch Fixed Odds Price $2.80) : Was an eye-catching performance last start when wide throughout and strong late, finishing on to be beaten narrowly in the Group 3 Aspiration Stakes over the mile at Randwick. The start prior was beaten a tick over 2 lengths by the ultra-talented Dixie Blossoms over 1400 metres and should be set to peak here with the step up to 1900 metres. At her only other start over a similar distance range bolted in by 10 lengths in a Benchmark 72 event at Randwick on heavy ground over 2000 metres in June of last year. Right in the mix.
- Rosehill Saturday Race 6 Number 8 DÁrgento (TABtouch Fixed Odds Price $5.50): Flashy Grey Colt who has not enjoyed the best of passages at his last two starts when finishing behind Star Three Year Old Kementari. Overall career record of 5 starts for 3 wins and a placing gives a strong pointer to his ability and appears well suited by the step up in trip to 2000 metres. Has won his only start on a soft surface so the prospect of a rain-affected track should not pose a problem. Should run a super race at each way odds.
- Ascot Saturday Race 5 Number 1 Floyd (TABtouch Fixed Odds Price $3.10) : Returned when runner-up beaten half a length behind Snow Lord and that was enough to show that this fellow is back in good order. Has had 7 starts at this trip for 3 wins and 3 seconds and from barrier one Jarrad Noske should be able to camp right on top of the speed. Pretty talented customer and this race looks well within his grasp.
- Ascot Saturday Race 8 Number 1 Candlelight Star (TABtouch Fixed Odds Price $11) : Get back run-on galloper who has been excellent in all three runs this time in. Has not been well served in races suited to on-speed runners at his last couple of efforts but has still been running sizzling run home splits. Is bursting to win a race and at the fantastic each way odds of $11 I am more than happy to be on for the win and place. Can be swamping them late.