Richmond and Collingwood were impressive winners in week one of the finals and they await the winners of this weekend’s finals in Preliminary Final showdowns.
Tonight at the MCG Geelong have been well backed and are $2.02 into $1.85 while West Coast have drifted to be the $2 outsiders.
Geelong were beaten by 10 points by Collingwood last week in a match where they lost key players Mitch Duncan and Gary Rohan to injury.
On the flip side West Coast were dominant 55 point winners over Essendon on their home deck at Optus Stadium. The only change to that winning outfit is Willie Rioli out due to suspension with Jack Petruccelle coming in to take his spot.
It is a tough game to read and while Geelong were only beaten by 10 points their forward setup looked flat last week. In contrast West Coast had potency inside their forward half.
This to me is the key to the match – if West Coast can operate with similar fluency inside their attacking half in this match they may simply be able to score easier.
Geelong are also going to have to come up with a plan to nullify the likes of McGovern, Hurn and co. who generate a lot of drive off half back for the Eagles.
I am going to lean slightly towards the Eagles in a game that promises to be a beauty.
I will be backing Josh Kennedy at $6.50 and Gryan Miers at $14 to kick the first goal of the match.
In the other match at the GABBA Brisbane are the well-backed favourites at $1.62 while GWS are a $2.30 outsider.
Brisbane were beaten by Premiership favourites Richmond last week but the Tigers are the bench mark of the competition in my opinion and they can bounce back here.
GWS were very good last week against the Dogs and their attack on the football was ferocious but can they repeat it here?
I think the Lions have been more reliable throughout the course of 2019 and will side with them to prevail.
I have backed Charlie Cameron at $6.50 and Jeremy Cameron at $7 to be the first goal scorer of the match.
My multi for the weekend is West Coast into Brisbane which is paying $3.24.
I’ll take a multi with Melbourne, Sydney and Parramatta to all win their finals this weekend. The multi price is $2.64.
CRICKET – THE ASHES
At stumps on day one of the fifth Test at the Oval England were 8/271 with WA’s Mitch Marsh starring with the ball for Australia claiming 4/35 from his 16 overs.
At the risk of sounding like a broken down record I am continuing my all in play with Steve Smith to be the leading runscorer for Australia and Australia to go on and win again.
He has not missed all series and until he misses out I am going to continue to head to the bowser to fill up.
Our pre series predictions have proven bang on and it has been a series to remember on the punt – mainly courtesy of the world’s best Test batsman Steve Smith.
My best bets of the weekend are as follows :
Flemington Saturday Race 5 Number 5 Dalasan (TABtouch Fixed Odds Price $2.80) : Smart colt who accounted for Scales Of Justice last start when resuming in the Spring Stakes at Morphettville and that form is white hot. At his only try at this venue was beaten a narrow margin when runner up in the VRC Sires. Genuine talent and looks set for a bright future. The clear danger looks to be Super Seth (number 4) and they look the Quinella of the day.
Flemington Saturday Race 7 Number 3 Humidor (TABtouch Fixed Odds Price $23) : Runs into some hot opposition which I respect namely Mystic Journey, Scales of Justice and Yucatan but I cannot get away from the fact that Humidor has had 6 starts second up for 4 wins and a second. Generally improves sharply from first up to second up and has had 8 tries over this distance for 4 wins and a placing. Won this race by over 3 lengths in 2017 and I think the price is delicious. Amazing value.
Rosehill Saturday Race 6 Number 4 Exceedance (TABtouch Fixed Odds Price $2.20) : Classy 3 year old who toyed with his rivals at his first run back from a break winning the San Domenico in grand style. Looks set for a big preparation and trainer Michael Hawkes suggested he is right on track for a very forward showing here. Hard to stop.
Rosehill Saturday Race 7 Number 6 Arcadia Queen (TABtouch Fixed Odds Price $1.90) : Star sandgroper who makes her east coast debut here in the Group 2 Theo Marks Stakes. Recent trials have been ideal and she is considered one of the key players heading towards the Everest. If she is to measure up in a race of that nature then she should be snacking on a race like this. Has won 5 of her 6 career starts and will carry the hopes of many a multi in this. Big things lie ahead!
Mandurah Friday Race 5 Number 8 Santa’s Magic (TABtouch Fixed Odds Price Not Available) : Very speedy customer who won last week over the shorter trip in a slick 22.40. Gets room to zoom here and with a safe getaway should be too fast. On what looks a nice night for the punters I also like 8-6 Resting Toucher each way, 10-4 Willie Gundi and 11-3 Go Danno Go.